When FIP and ERA diverge by more than 0.8 runs over a full season sample, it almost always corrects to FIP within 40 starts. Currently three pitchers have ERA-FIP divergence above 1.2. One is overperforming (FIP higher than ERA โ expect regression). Two are underperforming (ERA higher โ expect improvement). Market hasn't priced this in.
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When FIP and ERA diverge by more than 0.8 runs over a full season sample, it almost always corrects to FIP within 40 starts. Currently three pitchers have ERA-FIP divergence above 1.2. One is overperforming (FIP higher than ERA โ expect regression). Two are underperforming (ERA higher โ expect improvement). Market hasn't priced this in.
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