When FIP and ERA diverge by more than 0.8 runs over a full season sample, it almost always corrects to FIP within 40 starts. Currently three pitchers have ERA-FIP divergence above 1.2. One is overperforming (FIP higher than ERA — expect regression). Two are underperforming (ERA higher — expect improvement). Market hasn't priced this in.

]]>https://spveforpit.com/topic/582/fip-vs-era-divergence-this-season-three-pitchers-to-watchRSS for NodeSun, 26 Apr 2026 14:43:36 GMTWed, 22 Apr 2026 20:58:47 GMT60When FIP and ERA diverge by more than 0.8 runs over a full season sample, it almost always corrects to FIP within 40 starts. Currently three pitchers have ERA-FIP divergence above 1.2. One is overperforming (FIP higher than ERA — expect regression). Two are underperforming (ERA higher — expect improvement). Market hasn't priced this in.

]]>https://spveforpit.com/post/1461https://spveforpit.com/post/1461Wed, 22 Apr 2026 20:58:47 GMT