• FIP vs ERA divergence this season โ€” three pitchers to watch

    When FIP and ERA diverge by more than 0.8 runs over a full season sample, it almost always corrects to FIP within 40 starts. Currently three pitchers have ERA-FIP divergence above 1.2. One is overperforming (FIP higher than ERA โ€” expect regression). Two are underperforming (ERA higher โ€” expect improvement). Market hasn't priced this in.

  • When FIP and ERA diverge by more than 0.8 runs over a full season sample, it almost always corrects to FIP within 40 starts. Currently three pitchers have ERA-FIP divergence above 1.2. One is overperforming (FIP higher than ERA โ€” expect regression). Two are underperforming (ERA higher โ€” expect improvement). Market hasn't priced this in.