• Why I bet the over on total rounds more than any other market

    The over/under on total rounds has the most consistent edge in my data. Public bettors go under because they want excitement. This inflates over prices by approximately 8% across all weight classes. A 40% fight finishing in under X rounds is often priced at 52% implied. The over is systematically cheap.

  • The over/under on total rounds has the most consistent edge in my data. Public bettors go under because they want excitement. This inflates over prices by approximately 8% across all weight classes. A 40% fight finishing in under X rounds is often priced at 52% implied. The over is systematically cheap.