Analyzed 3,000 UFC decisions from 2021-2026. The single most predictive variable for decision wins: octagon center time (r=0.67). Not strike output (r=0.41). Not takedown attempts (r=0.38). Fighters who control range and position win decisions at a higher rate than high-output fighters. Control beats output.
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Analyzed 3,000 UFC decisions from 2021-2026. The single most predictive variable for decision wins: octagon center time (r=0.67). Not strike output (r=0.41). Not takedown attempts (r=0.38). Fighters who control range and position win decisions at a higher rate than high-output fighters. Control beats output.
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