I tracked every bet for 8 months. Favorite bets: -6% ROI. Mid-range odds (4-10): +2.1% ROI. Long-shots (10+): +4.8% ROI with high variance. I switched my stake allocation toward mid-range and long-shots with researched edge. ROI improved. The market systematically overprices favorites.
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I tracked every bet for 8 months. Favorite bets: -6% ROI. Mid-range odds (4-10): +2.1% ROI. Long-shots (10+): +4.8% ROI with high variance. I switched my stake allocation toward mid-range and long-shots with researched edge. ROI improved. The market systematically overprices favorites.
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