I tracked every bet for 8 months. Favorite bets: -6% ROI. Mid-range odds (4-10): +2.1% ROI. Long-shots (10+): +4.8% ROI with high variance. I switched my stake allocation toward mid-range and long-shots with researched edge. ROI improved. The market systematically overprices favorites.

]]>https://spveforpit.com/topic/644/why-i-stopped-betting-favorites-and-what-happened-to-my-roiRSS for NodeSun, 26 Apr 2026 13:21:45 GMTSat, 25 Apr 2026 05:49:28 GMT60I tracked every bet for 8 months. Favorite bets: -6% ROI. Mid-range odds (4-10): +2.1% ROI. Long-shots (10+): +4.8% ROI with high variance. I switched my stake allocation toward mid-range and long-shots with researched edge. ROI improved. The market systematically overprices favorites.

]]>https://spveforpit.com/post/1523https://spveforpit.com/post/1523Sat, 25 Apr 2026 05:49:28 GMT