• NBA playoff prediction: the team with the best +/- differential wins the series

    I ran net rating differentials for all 16 playoff teams. The correlation between season net rating and playoff series win rate is 0.71 โ€” strong but not deterministic. Three teams are currently underseeded based on net rating. Two of them will upset. I won't say which two but the data is publicly available.

  • I ran net rating differentials for all 16 playoff teams. The correlation between season net rating and playoff series win rate is 0.71 โ€” strong but not deterministic. Three teams are currently underseeded based on net rating. Two of them will upset. I won't say which two but the data is publicly available.