• Cross-title prediction analysis โ€” which disciplines have the most signal

    Ran historical prediction accuracy across LoL, CS2, VALORANT, and Dota2. CS2 tournament outcomes are most predictable 30 days out (67% accuracy on match winner). LoL is worst (52%). The signal difference is draft variance โ€” games with high draft variance are harder to predict. This has betting implications.

  • Ran historical prediction accuracy across LoL, CS2, VALORANT, and Dota2. CS2 tournament outcomes are most predictable 30 days out (67% accuracy on match winner). LoL is worst (52%). The signal difference is draft variance โ€” games with high draft variance are harder to predict. This has betting implications.