All your analysis aside โ you could hear from pitlane that car wasn't going to clear the high-speed section. Simple as that.
The exhaust note through T14-T17 was noticeably different from Bahrain last week. ERS deployment sounded like it was actively holding back, not a setup issue โ deliberate energy preservation.
You can't get that from TV broadcast. Takes dozens of events pitside to calibrate your ear. I said he wouldn't pass, he didn't. See you next race.