• Predicting sector times for the next race โ€” my methodology

    I use a 4-variable model: previous-year sector splits, compound selection, weather probability, and DRS zone length. The uncertainty bands are honest โ€” ยฑ0.3s per sector for front-runners, ยฑ0.8s for midfield. I post pre-race and post-race comparisons so you can see where the model was wrong.

  • I use a 4-variable model: previous-year sector splits, compound selection, weather probability, and DRS zone length. The uncertainty bands are honest โ€” ยฑ0.3s per sector for front-runners, ยฑ0.8s for midfield. I post pre-race and post-race comparisons so you can see where the model was wrong.