-5.5 spread is mispriced — taking it immediately

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-5.5 spread is right there, totally mispriced. Not taking it would be irresponsible.

Analysis: strong home team giving 5.5 to a weak road team, but the road team has lost by an average of 9.2 points over their last four games. This is a deliberately conservative line. The bookmaker may be fishing for sharp money on the favourite, but mathematically this is a positive EV position.

Bankroll management is on — 5% of my roll, a sensible size. Anyone else in on this or have a different read? Open to counter-arguments.

-5.5 spread is right there, totally mispriced. Not taking it would be irresponsible.

Analysis: strong home team giving 5.5 to a weak road team, but the road team has lost by an average of 9.2 points over their last four games. This is a deliberately conservative line. The bookmaker may be fishing for sharp money on the favourite, but mathematically this is a positive EV position.

Bankroll management is on — 5% of my roll, a sensible size. Anyone else in on this or have a different read? Open to counter-arguments.

The coaching error point is provable when you have lineup data. What's frustrating is that post-game analysis almost never gets to this level. The coaches get credit or blame for outcomes, not for decisions.

Coaching decision data is underanalyzed in basketball because it requires frame-level annotation. The tools to do it properly are available now. We just need more people using them.