Three weeks into 2026, the xBA vs BA discrepancies are already telling stories. Biggest overperformer: a veteran first baseman hitting .340 with an xBA of .261 โ he's getting BABIP-lucky on grounders that are finding holes, it won't last. Most interesting underperformer: the Padres' young outfielder hitting .198 with an xBA of .287 โ he's hitting the ball hard to the right places and getting nothing for it. Regression will be significant in both cases. Early April is the best time to buy the underperformer and sell the overperformer in fantasy leagues because the market is slow to recognize that three weeks of BA is almost entirely noise.
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Three weeks into 2026, the xBA vs BA discrepancies are already telling stories. Biggest overperformer: a veteran first baseman hitting .340 with an xBA of .261 โ he's getting BABIP-lucky on grounders that are finding holes, it won't last. Most interesting underperformer: the Padres' young outfielder hitting .198 with an xBA of .287 โ he's hitting the ball hard to the right places and getting nothing for it. Regression will be significant in both cases. Early April is the best time to buy the underperformer and sell the overperformer in fantasy leagues because the market is slow to recognize that three weeks of BA is almost entirely noise.
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