The optimal team three-point attempt rate has a ceiling that most analytics advocates ignore. Based on five-year data, teams attempting over 44 three-pointers per game see diminishing efficiency returns compared to teams in the 36-42 range. The reason: shot quality degrades. Above 44 attempts, teams are shooting early-clock threes, off-balance threes, and heavily-contested threes to hit their volume targets. The 36-42 range represents near-optimal shot selection from the arc โ teams taking threes they can make at high rates rather than threes they need to hit their statistical targets. Volume for its own sake is as analytically naive as dismissing the shot entirely.
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The optimal team three-point attempt rate has a ceiling that most analytics advocates ignore. Based on five-year data, teams attempting over 44 three-pointers per game see diminishing efficiency returns compared to teams in the 36-42 range. The reason: shot quality degrades. Above 44 attempts, teams are shooting early-clock threes, off-balance threes, and heavily-contested threes to hit their volume targets. The 36-42 range represents near-optimal shot selection from the arc โ teams taking threes they can make at high rates rather than threes they need to hit their statistical targets. Volume for its own sake is as analytically naive as dismissing the shot entirely.
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Booker mid-range spacing analysis is correct. The possession-level impact of his mid-range pull-up on floor spacing doesn't appear in any simple shot quality metric.
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