The odds are completely justified for this fight โ did anyone watch last week's open sparring?! PEAK conditioning right now!!
His combination speed in last week's public training session averaged 0.3 seconds faster per combo than the previous month. In MMA context that is a significant jump, and it tells you the camp specifically targeted speed.
The opponent defaults to conservative output in the middle rounds โ which is fine until you're facing someone whose speed just stepped up. Middle of round 2 onward: I'm expecting a defining moment. Bankroll at 5% of roll on this call.