Play 1: Fighter A via submission at 2.8 (implied 36% — his actual submission rate in this match style is 48%). Play 2: Fighter B to win in 3 rounds at 4.1 (opponent has never gone past round 3 when rocked early — B rocks him early 55% of fights). Both have positive expected value.

]]>https://spveforpit.com/topic/661/odds-analysis-for-this-weekend-two-plays-i-likeRSS for NodeSun, 26 Apr 2026 13:18:05 GMTThu, 23 Apr 2026 23:06:49 GMT60Play 1: Fighter A via submission at 2.8 (implied 36% — his actual submission rate in this match style is 48%). Play 2: Fighter B to win in 3 rounds at 4.1 (opponent has never gone past round 3 when rocked early — B rocks him early 55% of fights). Both have positive expected value.

]]>https://spveforpit.com/post/1540https://spveforpit.com/post/1540Thu, 23 Apr 2026 23:06:49 GMT