<![CDATA[The overlay analysis that made me money this tournament — shared freely]]>Market implied probability for the top 4 bracket: team ratings didn't support the implied probabilities. Three teams were underpriced by 7-12 percentage points. I posted this before the tournament. I'm posting the results now: all three outperformed their implied probability. The math was right.

]]>https://spveforpit.com/topic/614/the-overlay-analysis-that-made-me-money-this-tournament-shared-freelyRSS for NodeSun, 26 Apr 2026 13:18:37 GMTFri, 24 Apr 2026 19:19:44 GMT60<![CDATA[Reply to The overlay analysis that made me money this tournament — shared freely on Fri, 24 Apr 2026 19:19:44 GMT]]>Market implied probability for the top 4 bracket: team ratings didn't support the implied probabilities. Three teams were underpriced by 7-12 percentage points. I posted this before the tournament. I'm posting the results now: all three outperformed their implied probability. The math was right.

]]>https://spveforpit.com/post/1493https://spveforpit.com/post/1493Fri, 24 Apr 2026 19:19:44 GMT