The spread models using net rating are correct in isolation. But they're not accounting for schedule rest discrepancy (one team had 2 days rest, other had 4), or the fact that the underdog ranks top 5 in 3-point percentage in playoff games (elevated sample). The actual spread should be 3.5-4. This is value.

]]>https://spveforpit.com/topic/602/why-this-conference-final-is-closer-than-the-6-point-spread-suggestsRSS for NodeSun, 26 Apr 2026 13:22:18 GMTSat, 25 Apr 2026 00:57:54 GMT60The spread models using net rating are correct in isolation. But they're not accounting for schedule rest discrepancy (one team had 2 days rest, other had 4), or the fact that the underdog ranks top 5 in 3-point percentage in playoff games (elevated sample). The actual spread should be 3.5-4. This is value.

]]>https://spveforpit.com/post/1481https://spveforpit.com/post/1481Sat, 25 Apr 2026 00:57:54 GMT