<![CDATA[6-month data: this team's BO5 game-4 reverse win rate is 71%]]>Based on six months of data, this team's reverse win rate in BO5 game 4 is 71% — yesterday was statistically predictable.

Simple model I ran: if the opponent controls the first Dragon before the 8-minute mark, their win rate falls to 38%. Above that threshold: 67%.

Not voodoo — it's a pattern. At 2.1 odds, the theoretical EV is positive. Past data doesn't guarantee future results, but this is the framework I use.

]]>https://spveforpit.com/topic/426/6-month-data-this-teams-bo5-game-4-reverse-win-rate-is-71RSS for NodeSun, 26 Apr 2026 12:01:02 GMTFri, 24 Apr 2026 06:00:48 GMT60<![CDATA[Reply to 6-month data: this team's BO5 game-4 reverse win rate is 71% on Fri, 24 Apr 2026 06:00:48 GMT]]>Based on six months of data, this team's reverse win rate in BO5 game 4 is 71% — yesterday was statistically predictable.

Simple model I ran: if the opponent controls the first Dragon before the 8-minute mark, their win rate falls to 38%. Above that threshold: 67%.

Not voodoo — it's a pattern. At 2.1 odds, the theoretical EV is positive. Past data doesn't guarantee future results, but this is the framework I use.

]]>https://spveforpit.com/post/1305https://spveforpit.com/post/1305Fri, 24 Apr 2026 06:00:48 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to 6-month data: this team's BO5 game-4 reverse win rate is 71% on Wed, 22 Apr 2026 22:11:38 GMT]]>I'd add map 4 pick order as a variable. The team that gets their best map in game 4 wins at significantly higher rate. Map pool depth matters.

]]>https://spveforpit.com/post/1632https://spveforpit.com/post/1632Wed, 22 Apr 2026 22:11:38 GMT<![CDATA[Reply to 6-month data: this team's BO5 game-4 reverse win rate is 71% on Wed, 22 Apr 2026 20:57:49 GMT]]>BO5 game-4 stats are something I track casually too. The gap you're describing is real and it's why I'm very careful with in-series bets after game 3.

]]>https://spveforpit.com/post/1631https://spveforpit.com/post/1631Wed, 22 Apr 2026 20:57:49 GMT